Who Has a Deal, Who Doesn't? The State of Play on the Eve of Trump's Tariffs

WASHINGTON D.C. – As August 1, 2025, rapidly approaches, the global trading community holds its breath. President Donald Trump is poised to implement a new wave of aggressive tariffs, marking a significant phase in his renewed "America First" policy. With the trade deal deadline looming, nations are scrambling to secure their positions, while others brace for the inevitable economic fallout.

Since returning to office on January 20, 2025, President Trump has dramatically escalated US-imposed tariffs. The average US applied tariff surged from 2.5% in January to an estimated 27% by April, the highest level in over a century. While this figure saw a dip to 18.2% by July 2025 after some negotiations, these numbers vastly exceed historical levels. US tariff revenues have reached record highs, exceeding $87 billion in the first half of 2025 alone, surpassing the total for all of 2024.

The Dealmakers: Who Got an Agreement?

In a race against time, several key US trading partners have successfully struck deals with Washington, securing lower tariffs than initially threatened. These agreements often involve significant commitments from the partner nations in the form of US goods purchases, investments, or other concessions.

European Union: Has agreed to a 15% tariff on most of its exports to the US, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals. In return, the EU committed to purchasing US gas and increasing investments. This is a significant drop from the initial 30% threat.

Japan: Successfully secured a reciprocal 15% tariff on its goods exported to the US, down from a 25% threat. Japan also pledged to invest $550 billion in the US economy.

United Kingdom: Agreed to a 10% tariff on its exports to the US and accepted sectoral tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum, half of the 50% levied on other nations.

South Korea: Secured a 15% tariff on its imports to the US, in exchange for a $350 billion investment pledge and zero tariffs on US exports like automobiles and agricultural products.

Indonesia: Has negotiated a 19% tariff on its exports to the US, down from a 32% threat, with a commitment to purchase US Boeing aircraft and eliminate or reduce trade barriers. Indonesia will also provide certainty regarding data transfers to the US.

Vietnam: Agreed to a 20% tariff on most of its exports to the US, with an additional 40% levy on "transferred" goods (entering the US via another location). Vietnam also agreed to zero tariffs on US imports like large-engine cars.

Philippines: Has agreed to a 19% tariff on its exports to the US, with zero tariffs on US exports to the Philippines, plus a commitment to increased military cooperation.

Pakistan: Reached an agreement to jointly develop oil reserves with the US, though specific tariff details on goods remain unclear.

On the Brink: Who Still Lacks a Deal?

While many nations have secured agreements, several of the US's largest trading partners still do not have deals in place as of August 1. This creates significant uncertainty in global markets.

Mexico: The US's largest trading partner, faced 25% tariffs on most imports under initial trade war measures earlier in 2025. While some exceptions exist under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), no new deal has been reached, and Trump threatens 30% tariffs if no agreement is struck.

Canada: The US's second-largest trading partner, also faces uncertainty. Without a deal finalized by the August 1 deadline, Trump threatens to impose 35% tariffs on non-USMCA compliant goods.

China: The US's third-largest trading partner, has a tariff reprieve until August 12, at which point a combined 30% tariff will be applied. However, no permanent deal has been reached, and negotiations have stalled. US tariffs on Chinese goods previously reached 145%.

India: Surprisingly, India faces newly imposed 25% tariffs from Trump, plus an unspecified "penalty" for purchasing Russian weapons and energy. This will significantly impact India's exports to the US, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles, gems, and pharmaceuticals.

Taiwan: Has been working "almost 24 hours" to reach a deal but faces significant pressure from the US for greater market access.

Brazil: Perhaps the hardest hit, with a threatened 50% tariff on goods including aircraft and grains, openly linked by Trump to a political dispute.

Impact and the Path Forward

These tariff impositions are expected to have widespread effects. Analysis suggests that tariffs could increase US factory costs by 2% to 4.5%, and US consumers will likely bear most of this burden through higher prices. Inflation is already showing signs of escalation, with the Federal Reserve's preferred price index rising to 2.6% in June.

While the White House argues that tariffs will boost domestic manufacturing and replace income taxes, economists are skeptical, suggesting they could slow economic growth and increase the cost of living.

On the eve of the new tariff implementations, uncertainty remains high. Financial markets indicate some relief that tariffs aren't as high as Trump initially threatened in April, but concerns about rising costs for businesses and consumers persist. The world will be watching closely to see how nations without deals will react, and whether this wave of tariffs will trigger a broader reciprocal response, potentially igniting a new global trade war.

U.S. Tariff Rates (as of early August 2025)

Category of Goods	Trading Partner(s)	Tariff Rate	Notes & Details
Universal Baseline Tariff	Most countries	10%	A universal tariff imposed on most imported goods.
Steel and Aluminum	Global (with some exceptions)	50%	This rate was increased in June 2025, with certain exemptions negotiated via trade deals.
Automobiles & Parts	European Union (EU)	15%	This rate was established in a new trade deal with the EU, and applies to most EU-exported cars and parts.
Automobiles & Parts	Other Countries	25%	Tariffs on imported cars and auto parts from countries not covered by a specific trade deal.
Pharmaceuticals	European Union (EU)	15%	Part of the new trade deal with the EU, this tariff applies to most pharmaceutical products.
Pharmaceuticals	Other Countries	Varies	New tariffs on pharmaceuticals are still under discussion for other trading partners.
Technology	European Union (EU)	15%	A new tariff ceiling of 15% was set for semiconductors and other goods as part of the trade agreement.
FDA-Regulated Products	All trading partners	Varies	A new policy, effective July 9, 2025, rescinded exemptions for low-value shipments, subjecting all imports to the same regulatory requirements.
Specific Products	China	30%	The U.S. and China agreed to maintain this tariff rate on most Chinese imports as a temporary truce which expires on August 12, 2025.

Key Takeaways: 

Average US Tariffs: The overall average effective US tariff rate for consumers is estimated to be 18.4% as of July 30, 2025, the highest since 1933. Tariff Revenue: The US has collected over $87 billion from tariffs in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total revenue for all of 2024 ($79 billion). Economic Impact: These tariffs are expected to increase US manufacturing costs and ultimately raise consumer prices, potentially fueling inflation and slowing economic growth. Please remember this table is a summary, and specific tariffs can vary significantly depending on the product type (based on the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States - HTS). For the most detailed and up-to-date information on specific product tariffs, it's always best to refer to official US government websites (e.g., the U.S. International Trade Commission - USITC) or reliable trade data sources.